Thursday, December 27, 2007

Peltz vs. Overton

Not since Godzilla squared off with Mothra have we seen a fight card quite like the one that was set by Wednesday’s investment news.

On one side we have the quirkiest company in the restaurant business, with a level of achievement that begs steroid testing. Cheesecake Factory, despite its size and success, still reflects the idiosyncratic thinking of chief executive David Overton, who built the business with an iron discipline seldom seen outside of Olympic training camps. Two years ago, while receiving an award from Nation’s Restaurant News, Overton attributed his leadership—and, by inference, the chain’s success—to a gifted palate. He explained that a few bites can tell him if an item will be a success or not. That highly personalized approach to menu planning, he suggested, is as much an underpinning of the chain as its painstakingly controlled expansion, a design that’s finer than what you’ll often find in fine dining, and a voluminous bill of fare that seems scientifically impossible to execute. It’s an oddball, to be sure, but one that should have its own wing at Fort Knox. Few restaurant companies are more esteemed for the caliber of their operation.

And now the company finds itself in a gladiator pit with a Wall Street bully tapping a truncheon on his palm, like a street tough looking for a rumble. We and every publication use the euphemism “activist investor” to describe Nelson Peltz, but that doesn’t begin to characterize his mode of making money. His mechanism is really the not-so-veiled threat—do what I demand or I’ll use my investment capability to do something drastic. It’s as close as investing can come to a street gang’s offer to leave local shops unharmed if they pay an acceptable fee for the “protection.”

If Peltz wields that modus operandi against Cheesecake—a big “if,” despite indications he’s buying as much as 14 percent of the casual-dining company—it’ll a cage match between him and Overton. And my money will be on Overton.

A Rocky he’s not. We’re talking about a guy who got involved with Cheesecake to help out his parents, who had run the business from their basement. He’s renowned for giving general managers a BMW lease as a perk, and for reflecting his Far Eastern religious beliefs in the design of the stores (look for a sky scene or star motif on the ceilings). We’re talking about Jimmy Stewart standing up to an angry Harvey Keitel.

Yet Overton seems to have the conviction that a business should be cared for and nurtured like a living entity. In contrast, Peltz comes off as a horseback rider who doesn’t care if his stead dies after he arrives at his destination. The whole point was to get him there, horse be damned. That disparity could make Overton fight like a wildcat to protect the business his parents founded. At the very least, he’ll likely call Peltz’s bluff.

So what can Peltz do? The obvious possibilities:

--Solicit allies from among Cheesecake’s other shareholders to form a sympathetic faction controlling more than 50 percent of the company’s stock.

--Mount a hostile takeover attempt on his own.

--Sue Overton or Cheesecake for reneging on their fiduciary responsibility.

--Threaten to dump his shares and thereby depress the stock’s price.

In either case, he’ll likely find Overton to be a reluctant yet effective schoolyard hero, willing to stand up to a bully. That resistance alone might convince Peltz to shift his attention to less feisty prey.

Unfortunately for Cheesecake, Overton owned only 5 percent of the company’s outstanding shares as of an April proxy filing, and he’s trimmed his holdings since then. But, after watching Cheesecake evolve from a single Beverly Hills restaurant some 30 years ago, I can’t believe he’ll cede to Peltz without a battle royale. He may be the reluctant hero who stands up to this new breed of corporate greenmailer.

Of course, this is assuming that Peltz is looking to follow his usual script. With Cheesecake’s shares trading at a yearly low on the morning Peltz’s interest in the company came to light, the terror of Wall Street may just be bargain-hunting along with everyone else this holiday season.

Labels: , , , , ,

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Secret holiday diary of Nelson Peltz

Nelson popped over with a bottle of Captain Morgan last night to catch “Dancing with the Stars” and left without his backpack. I know you shouldn’t peek at a person’s diary, but it was right there under his copy of “Eat, Pray, Love.” I couldn’t resist.

Wednesday
Played Monopoly with relatives at the holiday party; was shocked to learn the money wasn’t real. Just as well, I guess; they thwarted my attempts to take over undervalued assets—the hotels on Baltic and Oriental—and refused to discuss how the railroads could be managed more profitability. After a few well-placed investments, they’ll rue that stubbornness.

Tuesday
Watched the umpteenth airing of “It’s a Wonderful Life,” one of the greatest tragedies of all time. A good man, that Potter. To watch him be destroyed by wussy George Bailey still brings tears to my eyes.

Monday
Went to see “The Grinch Who Stole Christmas” but was asked to leave. The Grinch said he couldn’t stand the competition. The screams of fright from the children were intolerable in any case, so I headed over to Fifth for some shopping. But Saks said it wasn’t for sale.

Sunday
Sent “21” into conniptions by giving Billy Ackman a surprise atomic wedgie. The lad thinks he knows a thing or two about forcing companies to heed his wishes. But he’s merely the Popeye to my Blutto.

Saturday
Fielded a call from George Clooney, who’s already casting “Ocean’s 27.” He’d like me to reprise my roll from “Ocean’s 10,” Nameless Man at Posh Party. But I’m not sure we’re simpatico on the character’s direction. What I’d really like to do is direct. Or take over DreamWorks.

Friday
Visited Washington and stumbled on a lovely house that has to be mine. All white, with a decent yard by Washington standards, though that big monument across the street will have to come down. Even comes with a heliport and guard stations. Maybe I’ll just buy the city.

Thursday
My pursuit of the Cadbury candy company continues. Nevermore will Caramello have to take a second seat to Royal Dark.

­Wednesday
Note to self: Check status of Wendy’s takeover attempt. Spending far too much on Doubles to remain just an investor.

Oh, well. Off to raid the retail sector!

Labels: , , ,